Balcanes Occidentales entre bloques enfrentados: alianzas militares, zona gris y contención multinivel

Abstract

This article analyzes the growing risk of conflict in the Western Balkans stemming from the consolidation of antagonistic military blocs centered around Serbia and Kosovo, involving external actors such as Russia, NATO, and the European Union. Drawing on theoretical frameworks including the balance of power, complex interdependence, and the concept of the gray zone, the study examines the strategic motivations of key actors, as well as critical flashpoints in Northern Kosovo and the Republika Srpska. Despite rhetorical escalation and underlying tensions, three key containment factors are identified: the EU’s structural mediation, regional economic interdependence, and international military deterrence through missions such as KFOR and EUFOR Althea. The objective of this research is to assess the impact of emerging military alliances on Balkan stability, considering historical variables, external actors, and international security theories, and to determine whether these alliances increase the risk of armed conflict in a context of unresolved tensions in Kosovo and Republika Srpska.