Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies
Of an electronic format, biannual and bilingual English-Spanish, the IEEE’s Magazine is a reference scientific publication in the field of the studies on Security and Defence. With the will to promote a high-level study and research of these matters, the IEEE’s Magazine serves as a platform for both the works and the contribution of young Spanish researchers and the most prestigious and experienced authors in this field of scientific research. The IEEE’s Magazine is included in the Latindex Catalogue and comes in the Dialnet repository.
MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Se permite y anima a los autores a difundir sus trabajos electrónicamente (por ejemplo, en repositorios institucionales o en su propio sitio web) después de la publicación de la revista, para favorecer intercambios productivos, así como una citación más temprana y mayor de los trabajos publicados (Véase The Effect of Open Access).
Reseña del libro: "Medio ambiente, seguridad y salud: grandes retos del derecho del siglo XXI"
Copyright (c) 2025 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Recensión del libro: "Winston Churchill y su época. El político bipolar"
Distribución cuántica de claves y su impacto geopolítico
Durante los próximos años, la seguridad de la información se enfrentará a uno de los retos más significativos en la historia de la criptografía moderna, un cambio profundo en las reglas del juego: el advenimiento de los ordenadores cuánticos. El posicionamiento ante el problema de la distribución cuántica de claves resultará vital para las principales potencias globales de nuestro siglo. Estados Unidos y China representan las dos posturas prevalentes: mientras que Estados Unidos muestra un cauto escepticismo, China ha hecho una apuesta decidida. El artículo explora las razones más relevantes detrás de una y otra aproximación, los desafíos que presenta la tecnología, las expectativas de resolución y los principales avances científicos. Posteriormente, presentamos las implementaciones prácticas más importantes hasta la fecha, qué estrategia subyace detrás de estas y cómo los distintos actores pretenden proyectar su visión del futuro de las comunicaciones seguras. Un futuro favorable a sus intereses.
The United States Marine Corps Force Design 2030 as a strategic planning process product, an appropriate framework for the Spanish military change processes?
The «age of security competition», the recent surge of war in Europe and the disruptive ways of fighting modern conflicts are pushing Western nations to update their security strategies. Spain is not immune to these influences. The study case of the Force Design 2030 of the United States Marine Corps may offer an appropriate reference frame for every force design process. The political will framed within the well-known «pivot to Asia» is guiding the Department of Defense to react against the Chinese competitivity in the Indo-Pacific region. The expeditionary oriented service of the Marines is leading one of the most acute and bold changing processes for regaining the power of the nowadays depleted deterrence. This paper analyzes this process, its alignment with the strategic objectives and its validity as comparative framework. Finally, it will be employed to extract potential lessons for the Spanish case.
Túnez en la encrucijada geopolítica del Mediterráneo: migración, seguridad y la externalización fronteriza de la Unión Europea
This article examines the migration flows from Tunisia to Europe following the Arab Spring, presenting a security dilemma for the European Union's foreign policy and its southern border states within the multipolar context that has emerged after a decade of uprisings. The research investigates how the multipolar environment and the anarchic structure of the international system influence European migration policy and the externalisation processes at its borders. Focusing specifically on North Africa, particularly Tunisia, the study investigates how the chaos generated in the aftermath of the events of 2011 has altered migration routes, thereby positioning Tunisia as a critical point of departure and transit within the Central Mediterranean migration pathways. This research offers a novel academic interpretation of migration phenomena in the Central Mediterranean, challenging the prevailing Eurocentric perspectives in contemporary discussions regarding European migration policy. It highlights the power asymmetry that exists between traditional European powers and their southern neighbours, advocating for a critical examination of approaches to address this security dilemma amidst increasing regional complexities and uncertainty.
Las Relaciones Internacionales en Rusia: desarrollo de la disciplina y política exterior
International Relations (IR) emerged as an academic discipline at the end of World War II, linked to the newly acquired American hegemony, which facilitated the consolidation of the realist paradigm of the discipline. At the same time, the development of IR in the Soviet Union was conditioned by the official Marxist ideology that reduced approaches to the strategic interests of the state. Finally, when Soviet IR specialists were able to access Western literature, they understood that their approaches could be compared to those of structural realism in capitalist thought. This work studies the state of the art of the discipline in Russia, from the Soviet period to the present and the transfer of theory to foreign policy. It concludes that the absolute predominance of the realist approach in Russia responds to the fact that it is the only one that can provide an appropriate theoretical framework for practical issues of foreign policy, among which the national interest stands out.
¿El fin de la sorpresa? Un estudio sobre la mutación del elemento sorpresa en el siglo de la (des)información
The revolution in intelligence gathering and analysis has transformed the role of surprise in modern warfare. Surveillance technologies, Big Data analytics and artificial intelligence have drastically reduced strategic uncertainty, limiting the ability of actors to execute surprise attacks. However, this apparent end of surprise faces a growing challenge: disinformation. The proliferation of false information, data manipulation and information poisoning has generated a new kind of digital fog of war, in which information overload and strategic noise can generate false certainties. This paper explores how surprise has been transformed in the information age and how the struggle between transparency and deception continues to define the modern battlefield. Finally, it discusses the role of intelligence analysis in turning data into useful knowledge, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between truthful information and strategic manipulation in order to avoid critical vulnerabilities.
Artificial Intelligence as a Geopolitical Asset: China’s Strategy and Its Global Impact
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a key factor in 21st-century geopolitical competition, with China emerging as a dominant player in its development and application in security and defense. Through initiatives such as DeepSeek and its ambitious national AI plan for 2030, China aims to establish itself as a global leader in this technology, generating significant strategic implications for international security. This article examines the impact of Chinese AI in three dimensions: its role in cybersecurity and hybrid warfare, the development of autonomous systems and their use in defense, and the regulatory and strategic challenges posed by its global advancement. It analyzes the responses of major powers such as the United States and the European Union, the role of AI in deterrence and hybrid conflicts, and the need for international regulatory frameworks to mitigate the risks associated with its proliferation. Drawing on an analysis of recent sources and strategic studies, this paper argues that Chinese AI not only redefines the global balance of power but also presents critical challenges in terms of security, technological governance, and international stability.
Disuasión multiinestable. El poder igualador de la precisión y la guerra de salvas en la tercera era nuclear
The massive proliferation of long-range precision munitions is transforming strategic stability and the operational environment, introducing unprecedented challenges. This evolution adds to the debates on second and third-era nuclear deterrence, shaping a new stage characterized by the impact of these projectiles on strategic stability. Technological innovations are generating unprecedented strategic phenomena, altering the nature of war and giving rise to new forms of conflict. Although academic literature has addressed deterrence and strategic stability, it has overlooked certain aspects that this study aims to analyze. The article will review the first and second nuclear eras to contextualize the third, presenting original concepts such as the "equalizing power of precision," "salvo warfare," and "multi-unstable deterrence." Additionally, it introduces a previously unexplored strategic phenomenon: multi-unstable deterrence, which is key to the current dynamics of war.
British Signals Intelligence on Argentine Naval Communications during the Falklands War: Collection, Processing and External Collaboration
Although the interception of Argentine naval communications by British intelligence during the Falklands War played a decisive role in the conflict, numerous issues, such as the extent of the interceptions, their actual relevance to the outcome, and almost everything regarding how these interceptions occurred, remain unresolved to this day. The aim of this article is to advance the understanding of these issues in the absence of the declassification of official documents on the subject. To this end, it analyzes the most likely intelligence-gathering methods, the intelligence activity prior to the Argentine landing operation, and seeks to contextualize this with the most recent information regarding intelligence cooperation between the Americans and the British in past decades, as it seems to offer a strong explanatory framework for understanding how the services involved operated. In this way, the article aims to provide criteria to more accurately evaluate or reevaluate the factors that determined the outcome and shaped the course of the war.
COGNITIVE WARFARE AS A STRATEGIC AVANT-GARDE: A DIALECTICAL PERSPECTIVE ON STRATEGIC THINKING
This article explores the capacity to develop a comprehensive understanding of reality through the materialist dialectic approach to knowledge. To achieve this, a critique is conducted from the dialectical perspective of modern scientific knowledge, which tends to follow a fragmented approach to knowledge, hindering adaptation to the current geostrategic context. Furthermore, it is shown how cognitive warfare has taken a central role within national security strategies, emerging as a superior phase of strategic thinking in itself. In this regard, it is highlighted how cognitive warfare, in its strategic form, extends beyond the military sphere, permeating various social and political domains, integrating the nexus between war as the continuation of politics by other means and providing conscious state direction. Through this approach, the article examines the strategic approaches of China, Russia, and the United States, concluding that the first two are in a position of strategic advantage due to the holistic vision provided by their approach to knowledge.
De la Guerra Fría a la crisis identitaria: la OTAN frente al aislacionismo, el imperialismo y la multipolaridad
The strategic retrenchment of the United States, driven by its energy independence and rising public demand for domestic investments, has been mistakenly interpreted as a sign of weakness by emerging powers like Russia and China, even though Washington remains, by far, the world’s leading military power. American energy self-sufficiency bolsters its global standing by reducing dependence on the Middle East and constraining Moscow’s ability to secure funding. In light of growing public pressure to cut military expenditures, NATO will need to assume greater responsibility for European defense, sharing burdens and facilitating the U.S. pivot to Asia, while avoiding any expansion beyond the Atlantic region or its military mandate. The Alliance must legitimize itself in the eyes of citizens not only as a defender of territorial integrity and democratic principles but also as a cornerstone of the welfare state.
Copyright (c) 2024 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Inteligencia artificial y sistemas biométricos de uso militar: redefinir la inteligencia artificial desde la ética y el derecho
This article addresses the need to prevent without limiting or doing what is fair, so that AI as an almost plenipotentiary tool contributes its immense grain of sand in security and defense applications. In particular, the use of biometric systems represents a whole world of opportunities in the security sector, but at the same time it confronts inalienable rights and guarantees. This situation of confrontation must be resolved from the point of view of ethics and law, without in any case determining an absolute limit to the use of a decisive tool, with basic and essential military applications.
Vinculaciones económicas del fenómeno terrorista. Antecedentes históricos y situación actual
The first legal considerations regarding terrorism date back to the 19th century, although they could be recognized in other primitive forms of crime such as ideological murders or murders motivated by economic interests. Like almost all activities, it needs money for its development and its way of financing has been changing just as its ways of acting have changed.
La gran estrategia británica del nuevo laborismo en el periodo 1997-2007: ¿constructivismo o realismo?
Este artículo analiza la evolución de la gran estrategia británica del nuevo laborismo durante la década 1997-2007. Estos años se corresponden con el mandato de Tony Blair como Primer Ministro del Gobierno de Reino Unido. El análisis se articula en torno a cuatro parámetros: las señas de identidad de la gran estrategia como poder axial; el europeísmo renovado, donde el concepto de puente estratégico entre Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea adquiere un significado renovado; la doctrina de la Comunidad Internacional y la dimensión ética en la política exterior británica; y las guerras de elección en Afganistán (2001) y en Irak (2003) tras los atentados terroristas del 11S. Este artículo defiende que Tony Blair hizo uso de un constructivismo selectivo, expresión que hace referencia a la evolución desde posiciones más constructivistas, con una fuerte retórica en defensa de los derechos humanos, hacia posturas más realistas, donde prevalecen los intereses nacionales. En el caso particular del periodo analizado, este artículo demuestra cómo la decisión de involucrarse en la invasión de Irak en 2003 fue un grave error, que rompió una de las máximas de la gran estrategia británica, como es el papel de puente estratégico.
The geopolitics of Russian gas pipelines in Europe. Between energy realism and energy liberalism.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 intensified the ongoing conflict that began in 2014, prompting concerns about Europe's energy security due to its dependence on Russian natural gas. Of the four pipelines that supply Russian gas to Europe, three were of particular concern: The Nord Stream, Yamal-Europe and the Ukrainian Transit System were the three principal pipelines through which Russian gas was transported to Germany, Poland and Ukraine, respectively. This study analyses Russia's relations with these countries from the perspectives of realism and liberalism, examining how these theories interpret energy geopolitics. While Poland and Ukraine adopt a realist perspective, viewing Russian gas as a strategic vulnerability, Germany adheres to a liberal outlook, perceiving it as a commercial good that fosters stability. The results demonstrate the divergence in perceptions of natural gas, pipelines, and the relationship with Russia, as well as in national energy strategies. Despite these differences, the disruption of gas supplies did not occur, indicating the predominance of realism as an interpretative approach. This has led to the emergence of a new pipeline map and a new policy towards Russia.
Auge y caída de un icono africano. Abiy Ahmed Ali ¿del Nobel de la Paz a amenaza para la seguridad regional?
The following paper aims to analyze the main events that have occurred in Ethiopia from the time Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in April 2018 until September 2024. During the first months of his tenure, his public image saw a meteoric rise, culminating in the award of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, only to become highly unpopular in the country shortly thereafter, particularly among the Oromo and Tigrayan communities. Here, we will outline the successes of his policies, encapsulated in his Medemer ideology, as well as his failures, especially those related to the Tigray war, the Oromo issue, the Amhara Fano insurgency, and the recent crisis triggered by Ethiopia's access to a Red Sea port.
Migration Strategies: A Comparative Analysis of South American Countries
Migration strategies have gained prominence on the security agendas of many countries, both in Europe and South America. The issue is particularly relevant due to the increasing presence of South-South migration, primarily driven by the economic and political crisis in Venezuela. These new migration flows have transformed traditional countries of origin into transit or destination countries. This study aims to examine and compare strategic documents from four South American countries (Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, and Perú) as well as two European countries (Portugal and Spain) as reference points. Qualitative content analysis methodology is used, and current trends and challenges are analysed. The results indicate the level of preparedness of these countries for a migration crisis, highlighting both similarities and differences in their documents.
Assesing Sino-Russian strategic synergies in North Africa
This paper examines the synergistic effects of increased collaboration between Russia and the PRC in North Africa. It argues that their coordinated efforts across diplomatic, information, military, and economic domains could significantly undermine Western regional interests. While scholars have analyzed the individual challenges posed by Russia and China, little attention has been given to how their combined actions might amplify their impact. Employing the strategic analysis model from the Army War College's Carlisle Scholar Program, the research identifies key areas of alignment in their regional approaches, including coordinating positions in multilateral forums, amplifying narratives through state media, launching joint naval exercises, and connecting overland and maritime economic corridors. Despite their distinct priorities and capabilities, the analysis finds that North Africa presents unique opportunities for Russia and China to advance their shared goals of expanding global influence and eroding the Western-led international order. To effectively counter this challenge, the paper argues that the United States and Europe must craft proactive, principled engagement strategies underpinned by robust partnerships with North African nations. These strategies should provide viable alternatives to exploitative Chinese and Russian economic arrangements, address the root causes of instability through governance and security assistance, and leverage coordinated diplomacy and sanctions policies for a unified Western approach. The paper underscores the importance of continued research on the evolution of Sino-Russian collaboration to inform adaptive policy responses in an era of intensifying strategic competition
Democracia, seguridad y secreto: ¿cómo funciona el control democrático de la comunidad de inteligencia en España?
En el presente papel se estudia cómo la democracia española controla su comunidad de inteligencia a través de tres dimensiones analíticas: la dirección política que ejerce el Gobierno sobre el conjunto de organismos que integran la Administración Pública, entre los cuales están los servicios de inteligencia; la supervisión parlamentaria desarrollada por las Cortes Generales, y, finalmente, el control jurisdiccional desarrollado por los órganos que conforman el poder judicial. El artículo estudia aspectos de configuración, diseño y rendimiento de este tipo de instrumentos de control y señala cómo tienen un paralelismo directo con el desarrollo que han conocido las instituciones que conforman el sistema político español.
Tecnología y economía de guerra en el conflicto ucraniano: análisis del esfuerzo bélico ruso
In the context of the war in Ukraine, both parties needed to mobilize their resources to sustain a large-scale conflict. Nowadays, after more than two years of attrition, Russia is still resilient and determined to face the Ukrainian military challenge and its Western support. At both operational and organic level, several changes are being made to prepare the Russian land forces to face a long conflict. On the other hand, Russia has adapted its resources and industry to get through the restrictions provoked by Western economic sanctions and carry on with the war effort. A clear correlation exists between operational adaptations and the Russian war economy. Therefore, the following article aims to analyse the impact that military and economic changes being applied by Russia has made on the battlefield.
The return of large numbers to the battlefield: quantitative implications of the Ukraine War on China’s ambitions for Taiwan
The Ukraine War has highlighted the importance of numbers in military conflicts between superpowers, demonstrating that these wars still largely adhere to modern-era parameters and the massive use of conventional weapons. It is inevitable to question how these observations influence the case of China’s ambitions over Taiwan, which could be the most dangerous source of tensions the world faces. China has a very large numerical base, which is the focus of this research, that strengthens its position and could potentially result decisive on the geopolitical board. Observing the Ukraine War calls for caution and emphasizes the importance of not relying solely on the deterrence of US military superiority to maintain the status quo regarding Taiwan. Additionally, it underscores the need for the West to promote policies that strengthen its defense industrial bases.
Realism, the United States, and China: Strategic Comparison and Projection in the Pacific
The strategic competition between the United States and China in the Pacific is addressed from the perspective of realism, a theory that highlights power, national interest, and security in foreign policy. Despite political and ideological differences, both actors seek to maximize their influence in an international environment marked by uncertainty. The United States, in an effort to maintain its regional hegemony, has strengthened its alliances and military presence to curb China’s rise. Meanwhile, China is expanding its military, technological, and economic capacity, challenging the established order and positioning itself as a systemic challenge to U.S. hegemony. The Pacific Ocean thus becomes the epicenter of a competition that reflects growing tensions between both powers, where the balance of power is at stake in a context of increasing rivalry. Understanding these geopolitical, technological, and diplomatic dynamics is key to analyzing the development of this competition in a critical region of the international system.
Reseña del libro: "Nuclear war: a scenario"
Recensión del libro: "Observar el arroz crecer: cómo habitar un mundo liderado por China"
Acerca de los intentos de encaje de Rusia en Europa
ARTICLE SUMMARY. The attempts to fit Russia into Europe. Since the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the USSR, there have been several attempts to reach a European security architecture where Russia could fit in and integrate into Western Europe. The eastward enlargement of both NATO and EU has become an obstacle and an alibi. A distinction can be made between periods of coexistence and opportunity (1989-94), of frost (1994-99), of an increase of discord (2000-12) and of rupture and confrontation (2012-22). It is interesting to contrast Russian attitudes and their character with Western proposals to understand how the search for cooperation has reached a confrontational situation. Russia has been willing to regain its great power status with no result in negotiations. Russian insecurity feelings have been combined with an exclusive and clumsy stance of the West to the point of a violent fight of interests. Mutual mistrust and a Western misunderstanding of the Russian question have succeeded. The West has behaved according to international norms in line with its interests, while a recovered Russia has not been able to escape its strategic culture. KEY WORDS: Cooperation, Integration, European Security, Enlargement, Rupture.