Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies
Of an electronic format, biannual and bilingual English-Spanish, the IEEE’s Magazine is a reference scientific publication in the field of the studies on Security and Defence. With the will to promote a high-level study and research of these matters, the IEEE’s Magazine serves as a platform for both the works and the contribution of young Spanish researchers and the most prestigious and experienced authors in this field of scientific research. The IEEE’s Magazine is included in the Latindex Catalogue and comes in the Dialnet repository.
MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Se permite y anima a los autores a difundir sus trabajos electrónicamente (por ejemplo, en repositorios institucionales o en su propio sitio web) después de la publicación de la revista, para favorecer intercambios productivos, así como una citación más temprana y mayor de los trabajos publicados (Véase The Effect of Open Access).
Presentación de la Revista del IEEE n.º 26
Copyright (c) 2026 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Reseña del libro: "Medio ambiente, seguridad y salud: grandes retos del derecho del siglo XXI"
Copyright (c) 2025 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Las Intervenciones Intergrupales como estrategia de STRATCOM
Strategic communication is one of the tools that has seen the greatest progress in recent years within NATO. Its capabilities to act on the cognitive sphere make it highly effective in reinforcing the influence of military power between civilians and the military. The interest in information warfare that has emerged since the invasion of Crimea has motivated the development of strategic communication capabilities. By reviewing some theories of social and group psychology, we will review a series of intergroup interventions that have proven effective in reducing prejudice and animosity between groups, thus advancing conflict management and strengthening the capabilities of all elements involved in NATO's action, in line with the narratives to be conveyed.
Economic Islamism as a Strategy for Political Legitimization in Iran
This paper analyzes economic Islamism based on the Iranian experience following the 1979 Revolution, focusing on the theocratic conception of power formulated by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in his doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih. According to this doctrine, the preservation of the Islamic State takes precedence over any religious duty or moral imperative. The research asks whether the Islamization of the economy constitutes a viable model of economic organization or, conversely, functions as an ideological strategy aimed at legitimizing political power. To address this question, the study examines the tensions between Islamic economics and modern social sciences. The research is based on a comparative documentary analysis, supported by the examination of both primary and secondary sources. The study concludes that economic Islamization in Iran does not offer a solid alternative to current economic systems. Rather than promoting inclusive and sustainable development, the model has tended to consolidate structures with authoritarian and exclusionary traits, limiting innovation, restricting epistemological pluralism, and fostering increasing social fragmentation. This poses serious challenges to the articulation of more just, inclusive, and rational economic models.
The UME on X/Twitter: strategic communication and national security in the forest fires of 2025
This article analyzes the strategic communication of the Military Emergency Unit (UME) on Twitter during the forest fires that affected Spain in July and August 2025, one of the most severe episodes in recent decades. The study starts from the premise that institutional communication on social media is a fundamental resource to reinforce transparency, legitimacy, and public trust in contexts of crisis that compromise national security. The corpus of analysis includes 175 tweets published by the official @UMEgob account, collected through scraping and examined using a mixed-methods approach. A descriptive analysis of frequency and engagement was conducted, along with a thematic classification adapted from the literature on crisis communication, and a semantic analysis using the data analysis software Graphext. The results show that UME’s communication strategy was eminently reactive and operational, with peaks of activity coinciding with the most critical moments of the fires. Informative messages about deployments and resources predominated, obtaining the highest levels of citizen interaction. Institutional values and territorial references reinforced the legitimacy of the institution. However, the limited presence of preventive messages reveals a focus centered on immediate response rather than on citizen preparedness.
The War as a game: strategic ‘gamification’ incontemporary armed conflicts
This article examines how various armed actors apply video game design logics—gamification—in contemporary armed conflicts. It identifies the forms, functions, and strategic objectives of these practices and evaluates their operational, psychological, and communicative effects on combatants and civilian audiences. Through three case studies (the Russo‑Ukrainian war, jihadist extremism, and Latin American organized crime), the study shows that gamification acts as a strategic force multiplier in modern warfare, enhancing propaganda and recruitment by framing conflict as a «game». Each case exhibits a different level of gamification (formalized in Ukraine, symbolic in jihadism, and informal in organized crime), and gamification is found to transnationalize war narratives, trivializing violence and particularly attracting younger audiences.
India in the Indo-Pacific: Strategic Autonomy and Opportunities for the European Union and Spain.
This article analyses India’s role in shaping the Indo-Pacific and its implications for the European Union and Spain. Building on the legacy of non-alignment and the evolution towards strategic autonomy, it examines the main doctrines guiding Indian foreign policy, such as the Act East Policy, the SAGAR initiative, and The India Way. The study explores the pillars of India’s strategic projection: economic growth, military modernisation, and connectivity projects, particularly the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor. It also addresses the rivalry with China, cooperation with the United States within the Quad, and opportunities for partnership with the EU in trade, technology, and maritime security. Special attention is given to the implications for Spain, highlighting the 2024 Joint Declaration and industrial and logistical cooperation. The article concludes that India is emerging as an indispensable partner for Europe’s strategic diversification and as an opportunity for Spain to strengthen its international profile in defence, energy, and connectivity.
Wargames y el futuro de la toma de decisiones
La capacidad para tomar decisiones no es únicamente innata, puede entrenarse, pero cómo hacerlo nunca ha sido una cuestión trivial: ¿Puede construirse una teoría de la decisión firme y sólida? ¿Son transferibles las habilidades que hacen bueno a un decisor? Los wargames han sido, históricamente, una herramienta eficaz para explorar estas preguntas. Los últimos avances en materia de inteligencia artificial han supuesto un nuevo impulso para los wargames y han facilitado sustancialmente las funciones de soporte al juego. No obstante, la aplicación en agentes y asistentes para la elección de curso de acción plantea cuestiones difíciles de abordar. ¿Pueden los agentes automáticos solucionar algunos de los problemas de los que adolecen los actuales métodos de entrenamiento y evaluación de decisores –y en concreto, los wargames–? Al mismo tiempo, la creciente comunidad de jugadores civiles –ya sea en el ámbito de los e-sports o los juegos de tablero– ofrece inteligencia colectiva y un banco de pruebas masivo y diverso, cuyas dinámicas pueden ser aprovechadas. Una fuente diversificada de perfiles cognitivos relevantes para el análisis del desempeño decisional. El análisis muestra que, en la intersección entre wargames, inteligencia artificial y jugadores civiles se abre una oportunidad inédita: repensar cómo entrenar, evaluar y ampliar las capacidades decisorias. Asimismo, se proponen tres líneas de acción operativas: el establecimiento de métricas comparables entre distintos tipos de decisores, la integración gradual de agentes automáticos y la incorporación estructurada de la comunidad civil mediante mecanismos de colaboración.
Reseña: Seapower in the Post-Modern World
Intelligence services at the service of democratic society and constitutional order
This work presents a socio-legal analysis of intelligence services and their crucial role in defending democracy and constitutional order, in the context of a growing need to address new challenges and move beyond current classical models, due to the tension between the need for national security, the preservation of civil liberties, and fundamental rights.
Hybrid Threats under Simulation: From Empirical Data to Strategic Modeling
Hybrid strategies have become a central concern in contemporary strategic analysis, yet their systematic modeling remains limited. This article proposes a replicable methodology that integrates empirical analysis, formal classification, statistical modeling, and adaptive simulation. Drawing on the reclassification of events from the GDELT database into the DIMEFL scheme (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic, Financial, and Legal), a quarterly panel of Turkish activity in Libya, Somalia, Mali, and Niger was constructed. This panel was analyzed through first-order Markov chains, negative binomial regression, and SARIMAX models, enabling the identification of sequential patterns and long-term trends. Complementing this approach, an agent-based model with reinforcement learning (ABM-RL) was developed, simulating Turkey as a strategic actor seeking to maximize influence while minimizing reputational costs. The simulation reproduced observed tactical sequences and uncovered adaptive logics that are less evident in empirical data alone. Although cognitive processes were not incorporated, cyber-physical-social systems are identified as a promising extension for future research. The proposed architecture constitutes a scalable framework for the study of hybrid threats and provides a robust foundation for the development of early-warning systems in multidomain environments.
Reseña del libro RED GLOBAL CABLES SUBMARINOS
Recensión del libro: "Winston Churchill y su época. El político bipolar"
Balcanes Occidentales entre bloques enfrentados: alianzas militares, zona gris y contención multinivel
This article analyzes the growing risk of conflict in the Western Balkans stemming from the consolidation of antagonistic military blocs centered around Serbia and Kosovo, involving external actors such as Russia, NATO, and the European Union. Drawing on theoretical frameworks including the balance of power, complex interdependence, and the concept of the gray zone, the study examines the strategic motivations of key actors, as well as critical flashpoints in Northern Kosovo and the Republika Srpska. Despite rhetorical escalation and underlying tensions, three key containment factors are identified: the EU’s structural mediation, regional economic interdependence, and international military deterrence through missions such as KFOR and EUFOR Althea. The objective of this research is to assess the impact of emerging military alliances on Balkan stability, considering historical variables, external actors, and international security theories, and to determine whether these alliances increase the risk of armed conflict in a context of unresolved tensions in Kosovo and Republika Srpska.
Cybersecurity Vulnerability Analysis of Russian Strategic Nuclear Missile Systems: Implications for Ukraine and NATO
This article analyzes the cyber vulnerability of the Russian Federation’s strategic nuclear missile systems, focusing on implications for regional security in Ukraine and NATO’s strategic deterrence. Using a mixed-method approach—combining open-source intelligence, attack vector simulation, and doctrinal review—the study identifies critical weaknesses in command-and-control systems, communication links, and authentication protocols. Findings indicate that legacy Soviet-era components pose significant risks of cyber intrusion, potentially undermining strategic stability. The article concludes that strengthening cyber defense capabilities and NATO–Ukraine coordination in cyber intelligence is essential to counter potential unconventional escalation scenarios. Key words: cyber vulnerability, strategic missiles, nuclear deterrence, Ukraine, NATO, hybrid security.
The Jihadism in the Penitentiary System: The Case of Rida B
The recent conviction of inmate Rida B. for threats against prison officials and glorification of terrorism has brought the issue of jihadist radicalization in prisons back into the spotlight. This phenomenon, however, has particular characteristics that differentiate it from jihadist radicalization and its criminal manifestations outside of prisons. The fact that convictions for jihadist activities in prisons have been handed down to inmates classified as first-degree raises key questions: How does jihadist activity manifest in a maximum-security environment? To what extent does the penitentiary institution succeed in preventing these phenomena?
Distribución cuántica de claves y su impacto geopolítico
Durante los próximos años, la seguridad de la información se enfrentará a uno de los retos más significativos en la historia de la criptografía moderna, un cambio profundo en las reglas del juego: el advenimiento de los ordenadores cuánticos. El posicionamiento ante el problema de la distribución cuántica de claves resultará vital para las principales potencias globales de nuestro siglo. Estados Unidos y China representan las dos posturas prevalentes: mientras que Estados Unidos muestra un cauto escepticismo, China ha hecho una apuesta decidida. El artículo explora las razones más relevantes detrás de una y otra aproximación, los desafíos que presenta la tecnología, las expectativas de resolución y los principales avances científicos. Posteriormente, presentamos las implementaciones prácticas más importantes hasta la fecha, qué estrategia subyace detrás de estas y cómo los distintos actores pretenden proyectar su visión del futuro de las comunicaciones seguras. Un futuro favorable a sus intereses.
The United States Marine Corps Force Design 2030 as a strategic planning process product, an appropriate framework for the Spanish military change processes?
The «age of security competition», the recent surge of war in Europe and the disruptive ways of fighting modern conflicts are pushing Western nations to update their security strategies. Spain is not immune to these influences. The study case of the Force Design 2030 of the United States Marine Corps may offer an appropriate reference frame for every force design process. The political will framed within the well-known «pivot to Asia» is guiding the Department of Defense to react against the Chinese competitivity in the Indo-Pacific region. The expeditionary oriented service of the Marines is leading one of the most acute and bold changing processes for regaining the power of the nowadays depleted deterrence. This paper analyzes this process, its alignment with the strategic objectives and its validity as comparative framework. Finally, it will be employed to extract potential lessons for the Spanish case.
Túnez en la encrucijada geopolítica del Mediterráneo: migración, seguridad y la externalización fronteriza de la Unión Europea
This article examines the migration flows from Tunisia to Europe following the Arab Spring, presenting a security dilemma for the European Union's foreign policy and its southern border states within the multipolar context that has emerged after a decade of uprisings. The research investigates how the multipolar environment and the anarchic structure of the international system influence European migration policy and the externalisation processes at its borders. Focusing specifically on North Africa, particularly Tunisia, the study investigates how the chaos generated in the aftermath of the events of 2011 has altered migration routes, thereby positioning Tunisia as a critical point of departure and transit within the Central Mediterranean migration pathways. This research offers a novel academic interpretation of migration phenomena in the Central Mediterranean, challenging the prevailing Eurocentric perspectives in contemporary discussions regarding European migration policy. It highlights the power asymmetry that exists between traditional European powers and their southern neighbours, advocating for a critical examination of approaches to address this security dilemma amidst increasing regional complexities and uncertainty.
Las Relaciones Internacionales en Rusia: desarrollo de la disciplina y política exterior
International Relations (IR) emerged as an academic discipline at the end of World War II, linked to the newly acquired American hegemony, which facilitated the consolidation of the realist paradigm of the discipline. At the same time, the development of IR in the Soviet Union was conditioned by the official Marxist ideology that reduced approaches to the strategic interests of the state. Finally, when Soviet IR specialists were able to access Western literature, they understood that their approaches could be compared to those of structural realism in capitalist thought. This work studies the state of the art of the discipline in Russia, from the Soviet period to the present and the transfer of theory to foreign policy. It concludes that the absolute predominance of the realist approach in Russia responds to the fact that it is the only one that can provide an appropriate theoretical framework for practical issues of foreign policy, among which the national interest stands out.
¿El fin de la sorpresa? Un estudio sobre la mutación del elemento sorpresa en el siglo de la (des)información
The revolution in intelligence gathering and analysis has transformed the role of surprise in modern warfare. Surveillance technologies, Big Data analytics and artificial intelligence have drastically reduced strategic uncertainty, limiting the ability of actors to execute surprise attacks. However, this apparent end of surprise faces a growing challenge: disinformation. The proliferation of false information, data manipulation and information poisoning has generated a new kind of digital fog of war, in which information overload and strategic noise can generate false certainties. This paper explores how surprise has been transformed in the information age and how the struggle between transparency and deception continues to define the modern battlefield. Finally, it discusses the role of intelligence analysis in turning data into useful knowledge, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between truthful information and strategic manipulation in order to avoid critical vulnerabilities.
Artificial Intelligence as a Geopolitical Asset: China’s Strategy and Its Global Impact
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a key factor in 21st-century geopolitical competition, with China emerging as a dominant player in its development and application in security and defense. Through initiatives such as DeepSeek and its ambitious national AI plan for 2030, China aims to establish itself as a global leader in this technology, generating significant strategic implications for international security. This article examines the impact of Chinese AI in three dimensions: its role in cybersecurity and hybrid warfare, the development of autonomous systems and their use in defense, and the regulatory and strategic challenges posed by its global advancement. It analyzes the responses of major powers such as the United States and the European Union, the role of AI in deterrence and hybrid conflicts, and the need for international regulatory frameworks to mitigate the risks associated with its proliferation. Drawing on an analysis of recent sources and strategic studies, this paper argues that Chinese AI not only redefines the global balance of power but also presents critical challenges in terms of security, technological governance, and international stability.
Disuasión multiinestable. El poder igualador de la precisión y la guerra de salvas en la tercera era nuclear
The massive proliferation of long-range precision munitions is transforming strategic stability and the operational environment, introducing unprecedented challenges. This evolution adds to the debates on second and third-era nuclear deterrence, shaping a new stage characterized by the impact of these projectiles on strategic stability. Technological innovations are generating unprecedented strategic phenomena, altering the nature of war and giving rise to new forms of conflict. Although academic literature has addressed deterrence and strategic stability, it has overlooked certain aspects that this study aims to analyze. The article will review the first and second nuclear eras to contextualize the third, presenting original concepts such as the "equalizing power of precision," "salvo warfare," and "multi-unstable deterrence." Additionally, it introduces a previously unexplored strategic phenomenon: multi-unstable deterrence, which is key to the current dynamics of war.
British Signals Intelligence on Argentine Naval Communications during the Falklands War: Collection, Processing and External Collaboration
Although the interception of Argentine naval communications by British intelligence during the Falklands War played a decisive role in the conflict, numerous issues, such as the extent of the interceptions, their actual relevance to the outcome, and almost everything regarding how these interceptions occurred, remain unresolved to this day. The aim of this article is to advance the understanding of these issues in the absence of the declassification of official documents on the subject. To this end, it analyzes the most likely intelligence-gathering methods, the intelligence activity prior to the Argentine landing operation, and seeks to contextualize this with the most recent information regarding intelligence cooperation between the Americans and the British in past decades, as it seems to offer a strong explanatory framework for understanding how the services involved operated. In this way, the article aims to provide criteria to more accurately evaluate or reevaluate the factors that determined the outcome and shaped the course of the war.
COGNITIVE WARFARE AS A STRATEGIC AVANT-GARDE: A DIALECTICAL PERSPECTIVE ON STRATEGIC THINKING
This article explores the capacity to develop a comprehensive understanding of reality through the materialist dialectic approach to knowledge. To achieve this, a critique is conducted from the dialectical perspective of modern scientific knowledge, which tends to follow a fragmented approach to knowledge, hindering adaptation to the current geostrategic context. Furthermore, it is shown how cognitive warfare has taken a central role within national security strategies, emerging as a superior phase of strategic thinking in itself. In this regard, it is highlighted how cognitive warfare, in its strategic form, extends beyond the military sphere, permeating various social and political domains, integrating the nexus between war as the continuation of politics by other means and providing conscious state direction. Through this approach, the article examines the strategic approaches of China, Russia, and the United States, concluding that the first two are in a position of strategic advantage due to the holistic vision provided by their approach to knowledge.
De la Guerra Fría a la crisis identitaria: la OTAN frente al aislacionismo, el imperialismo y la multipolaridad
The strategic retrenchment of the United States, driven by its energy independence and rising public demand for domestic investments, has been mistakenly interpreted as a sign of weakness by emerging powers like Russia and China, even though Washington remains, by far, the world’s leading military power. American energy self-sufficiency bolsters its global standing by reducing dependence on the Middle East and constraining Moscow’s ability to secure funding. In light of growing public pressure to cut military expenditures, NATO will need to assume greater responsibility for European defense, sharing burdens and facilitating the U.S. pivot to Asia, while avoiding any expansion beyond the Atlantic region or its military mandate. The Alliance must legitimize itself in the eyes of citizens not only as a defender of territorial integrity and democratic principles but also as a cornerstone of the welfare state.
Copyright (c) 2024 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0