El posible conflicto bélico entre Estados Unidos y China: reconsiderando la «Trampa de Tucídides»
Barra lateral del artículo
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
La teoría del equilibrio de poderes parece más adecuada que la «Trampa de Tucídides» para interpretar la actual tensión entre China y Estados Unidos. Las críticas a su etnocentrismo parecen olvidar factores de occidentalización todavía presentes en Asia Oriental, que condicionarían la emancipación china. Sin embargo, el equilibrio de poderes global no evitaría la conflictividad regional, por lo que deben también considerarse aquellos factores que podrían desencadenar una espiral de beligerancia. El escenario postpandémico podría iniciar una etapa iliberal de reglobalización, donde el neoproteccionismo sería un arma de contención.
Descargas
Detalles del artículo
Se permite y anima a los autores a difundir sus trabajos electrónicamente (por ejemplo, en repositorios institucionales o en su propio sitio web) después de la publicación de la revista, para favorecer intercambios productivos, así como una citación más temprana y mayor de los trabajos publicados (Véase The Effect of Open Access).
Citas
ACHARYA, A. (2014). Thinking Theoretically about Asian IR. En SHAMBAUGH, D. Y ZAHUDA, M. International relations of Asia. Rowman & Littlefield. Londres.
ACHARYA, A. (2017): Theorising the international relations of Asia: necessity or indulgence? Some reflections. The Pacific Review. DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2017.1318163.
ACHESON, D. (1949). The China White Paper. United States relations with China. Departamento de Estado.
ALADANGADY, A. y GARCÍA, D. (2021). The Unusual Composition of Demand during the Pandemic. FEDS Notes. https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2831.
ALDASORO, I.; EREN, E.; HUANG, W. (2021). Dollar funding of non-US banks through Covid-19. BIS Quarterly Review, marzo.
ALLISON, G. (2017). Destined for War: can China and the US escape Thucydides Trap?Scribe Publications.
BABA, N. y SHIM, I. (2011). Dislocations in the won-dollar swap markets during the crisis of 2007–09. BIS Working Papers. Basilea: Suiza.
BANCO DE JAPÓN (1966). Hundred-Year Statistics of Japanese Economy. Tokio.
BECKLEY, M. (2020) Rogue Superpower. Why This Could Be an Illiberal American Century. Foreign Affairs.
BERGER, B. Y MARTIN, R. (2011). The Growth of Chinese Exports: An Examination of the Detailed Trade Data. International Finance Discussion Papers. Federal Reserve.
BERNANKE, B. S. (2016). The dollar’s international role: An «exorbitant privilege»?www.brookings.edu (accedido 10/1/2021)
BOUTHOUL, G. (1967) Sociologie de la politique. PUF. París.
BOUTHOUL, G. (1967). Avoir la paix. Grasset, París.
BOUTHOUL, G. Y MOSCA, G. (1965) Histoire des doctrines politiques: Depuis l’antiquité. Petite bibliothèque Payot.
BRANDS, H. (2021). The Last Chance for American Internationalism: Confronting Trump’s Illiberal Legacy. Foreign Affairs.
BROOKS, D., BROOKS, S. G., GREENHILL, B. D., HAAS, M. L. (2019). The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful. International Security, 43-3, 53-95.
CALDER, K.; YE, M. (2004). Regionalism and Critical Junctures: Explaining the «Organization Gap» in Northeast Asia. Journal of East Asian Studies.
CASTELLTORT, M. (2020). Industria automovilística japonesa y la electrovehiculación como transformación social. Economía Industrial, 417.
CHEN, C-C. (2010). The Absence of Non-Western IR Theory in Asia Reconsidered. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 11-1.
CHO, J. H. (2011). Betnam pabyeonggwa Hanguk gyeongje seongjang (Vietnam War and the Korean Economy). Journal of Social Science 50-1. pp. 131–158.
CLÉMENT, T. (2019). Failed attempts at Cross-Border Economic Cooperation. https://www.38north.org/2019/10/tclement102819/ (Accedido 21-4-2021).
CLÉMENT, T. (2019). From failed economic interfaces to political levers: Assessing China-South Korean competition and cooperation scenarios on North Korean Special Economic Zones, Korea Academic Paper Series, Korea Economic Institute.
CRABTREE. J. (2021). China’s Radical New Vision of Globalization. https://www.noemamag.com.
DIAMOND J, (1997) Guns, Germs, and Steel. WW Norton. Nueva York.
DIETER, H. (2021). RCEP-Countries Create Asia-Pacific Free Trade Zone. SWP Comment 3. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik.
FMI (2019). World Economic Outlook. Washington D.C.
FRÍAS SÁNCHEZ, C. J. China, ¿un gigante con los pies de barro? Documento de Opinión IEEE 108/2019.
FRIEDBERG, A. (2000). Will Europe’s Past Be Asia’s Future? Survival, 42(3).
FRIEDMAN, T. (2005). The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
FUKAO, K. Y YUAN, T. (2018). The People’s Republic of China’s Slowdown: Lessons from Japan’s Experience and the Expected Impact on Japan’s Economy en on Japan’s Economy en Yi-fu Lin, J.; Morgan, P.J.; Wan, G. Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia. Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokio
GALLUP (2015). International’s Global Survey Shows Three in Five Willing to Fight for Their Country. https://www.gallup-international.bg/en/33483/win-gallupinternationals-global-survey-shows-three-in-five-willing-to-fight-for theircountry/.
HAFT, J. R. (2015). Unmade in China: The Hidden Truth about China’s Economic Miracle. Polity Press.
HAMADA, K. Y KASUYA, M. (1992). The Reconstruction and Stabilization of the Postwar Japanese Economy: Possible Lessons for Eastern Europe? Yale University. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/160594.
HE, Y. (2013). Sino-Japanese Relations in the Past and Present: Revisiting the Role of the US Factor and the Legacy of History en https://www.researchgate.net (accedido 21-3-2021).
HIGGINS, M. (2020). China’s Growth Outlook: Is High-Income Status in Reach? Economic Policy Review 26, 4, octubre. Reserva Federal, Nueva York.
ITO, H. Y CHINN, M. (2015). The Rise of the Redback: Evaluating the Prospects for Renminbi Use in Invoicing en EICHENGREEN, B. Y KAWAI, M. Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges. Asian Development Bank Institute y The Bookings Institution.
JAPAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE (2021). Asia Monthly Report, enero.
JUNG, M. (2021). Korea’s natural population decline begins. The Korea Times, 9 de enero.
KAFURA, C.; SMELTZ, D.; BUSBY, J.; KERTZER, J.; MONTEN, J. TAMA, J. (2021). Divisions on US-China Policy: Opinion Leaders and the Public. Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
KANG, D. C. (2003). International Relations Theory and the Second Korean War. International Studies Quarterly, 47.
KEYNES, J. M. (1936). Teoría General del Interés, el Empleo y el Dinero. Palgrave Macmillan.
KIM, B. (2017). Unveiling the North Korean Economy: Collapse and Transition. Cambridge University Press.
KIM, B. y JUNG, S. (2015). China’s Trade and investment with North Korea: Firm surveys in Dandong. Seúl: Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, Seoul National University.
KIM, D-J. (2019). Conscience in Action. Palgrave Macmillan.
KIM, K. W. (2020). Protestantisms and the Design of South Korea. Korea Journal, 60, 4 (invierno): 30–57. doi: 10.25024/kj.2020.60.4.30.
KISSINGER, H. (2020). The coronavirus pandemic will forever alter the world order. Wall Street Journal. 3 abril.
KOUSKOUVELIS, I. (2017). The Thucydides Trap: A Distorted Compass. https://www.e-ir.info/2017/11/05/the-thucydides-trap-a-distorted-compass/ (accedido el 30-4-2021).
KRUGMAN, P. (2019). What Economists (Including Me) Got Wrong About Globalization. Bloomberg opinion.
LACHMANN, R. (2015). Nation-State and War. International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.96041-0.
LEWIS, W. A. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School, Mayo, pp. 139−191.
LI, Q.; REUVENY, R. (2011). Trading for Peace? Disaggregated Bilateral Trade and Interstate Military Conflict Initiation. Journal of Peace Research. DOI: 10.1177/0022343311406306.
MARLIN-BENNETT, R.; ROSENBLATT, A. WANG, J. (1992) The visible hand: The United States, Japan, and the management of trade disputes. International Interactions 17(2): 191–213.
MARTIN, P., MAYER, T.; THOENIG, M. (2008b). Civil wars and international trade. Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 6.
MASUKAWA, C. (2020). Ajia ni totte RCEP wa nani o imi suru ka. (¿Qué significa RCEP para Asia?) Daiwa Institute Research. Tokyo.
MIURA, Y. (2020). Asia Monthly Report, enero. The Japan Research Institute.
MIZUNO, K. (2017). Tojite yuku teikoku to gyakusetsu no. 21 seiki keizai (La paradójica economía del S. XXI y los imperios cerrados). Shueisha, Tokio.
NISLEY, T. (2014). China’s Rise in a Changing Regional Hierarchy: A Comparison of 21st-Century China to 20th-Century Germany. The Journal of the Georgia Political Science Association.
NOGUCHI, Y. (2017). Introducción a la economía japonesa. (En japonés) Ed. Diamond.
NOGUCHI, Y. (2020). Crisis económica sin experiencia: ¿Puede Japón hacer de esta prueba un punto de inflexión para el crecimiento? (En japonés). Ed. Diamond. OFICINA DE INFORMACIÓN DEL CONSEJO DE ESTADO. Libro Blanco de
Defensa Nacional de China en una Nueva Era. 24 de julio de 2019.
OKITA, S. (1951) Japan’s Economy and the Korean War. Far Eastern Survey, 20(14). Institute of Pacific Relations.
ORLIK, T. (2020). China: the bubble that never pops. Oxford University Press. Apple Books.
PARK, C.Y.; ROSENKRANZ, P.; TAYAG, M.C. (2020). COVID-19 Exposes Asian Banks’ Vulnerability to US Dollar Funding. Asian Development Bank.
PARK, D.; Y SHIN, K. (2012). The Service Sector in Asia: Is It an Engine of Growth?Asian Development Bank.
PETERSON, E. W. F. (2017) The Role of Population in Economic Growth. SAGE Open. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244017736094.
PETRI, A. y PLUMMER, M. G. (2020). East Asia Decouples from the United States: Trade War, COVID-19, and East Asia’s New Trade Blocs. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
PIKETTY, T.; YANG, L.; ZUCMAN, G. (2017). Capital Accumulation, Private Property and Rising Inequality in China, 1978-2015. WID.world.
PRANTL, J.; KIM, H-W., C. (2016). Germany’s Lessons for Korea: The Strategic Diplomacy of Unification. Global Asia, 11-4.
QI, H., Y LI, Z. (2019). Giovanni Arrighi in Beijing: Rethinking the Transformation of the Labor Supply in Rural China during the Reform Era. Science & Society, 83 (3): 327-354.
RAJAGOPALAN, R. P. (2021). Asian Military Spending: A Sign of Worsening Security Environment. The Diplomat, 4 marzo.
RHEE, G. J. (2011). The recent experience of the Korean economy with currency internationalisation. BIS papers 61. www.bis.org (accedido 10/1/2021).
RICE, C. (2011). No higher honor. A memoir of my years in Washington. Crown Publishers, Nueva York.
ROBERTS, D. (2020). The Myth of Chinese Capitalism. MacMillan.
SHIRK, S. (2007). China: Fragile Superpower. Oxford University Press.
SIPRI (2020). Trends in world military expenditure, 2019. Abril.
STUBBS, R. (2018). Rethinking Asia’s Economic Miracle: The Political Economy of War, Prosperity and Crisis. Macmillan Education UK.
SUPERVIELLE, F. (2018) ¿Irán China y Estados Unidos a la guerra? 40/2018.
TANG, S. M. et al. (2020). The State of Southeast Asia: 2020. Singapur: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
TERADA-HAGIWARA, A.; PARK, D.; VAN RIJN, H. (2018). Three Features of Aging in the People’s Republic of China and Implications for Development Agenda. https://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF18965.
TODD, E. (2002). Après l’empire. Gallimard.
TODD, E. (2020). Les Luttes de classes en France au XXIe siècle. Seuil.
UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization). World Manufacturing Production Statistics for Quarter III 2020.
WANG, D.; STEVENS, F. MS (2020). Why is there no Northeast Asian security architecture? – Assessing the strategic impediments to a stable East Asia. The Pacific Review, 1-28.
WUTHNOW, J. (2020). System Overload: Can China’s Military Be Distracted in a War over Taiwan? National Defense University Press.
YAO, W., KINUGASA, T., HAMORI, S. (2013). An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China. Applied Economics, 45.
YAO, Y. (2018). Will the People’s Republic of China Be Able to Avoid the Japan Syndrome? en YI-FU LIN, J.; MORGAN, P. J.; WAN, G. Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia. Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokio.
ZAJEC, O. (2017). Le piège de Thucydide. Le Monde Diplomatique. Octubre.
ZHANG, J. J. (2018). Is China an Exception to the Commercial Peace? https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0w35v1v9 (Accedido 6/3/2021).